Vilafranca 1–1 Sant Andreu: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sant Andreu

Víctor Oribe 90+3'

G. Fassani 82'

12/11/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadi Zem de Vilafranca del Penedès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Vilafranca35%

×Draw28%

Sant Andreu38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchSant Andreu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.23

Vilafranca

1.17

Sant Andreu

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 57 away

1.19

creates per match

1.47

0.99

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

Sant Andreu

1.47

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

Sant Andreu

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Sant Andreu →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

62%

Vilafranca or Sant Andreu

72%

Draw or Sant Andreu

65%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

14%

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

69%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

33%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

11%

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

71%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

35%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

48%

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Sant Andreu away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Sant Andreu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sant Andreu attack 1.47 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vilafranca scores more

35%

level

28%

Sant Andreu scores more

38%

Sant Andreu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

J. Carreón← Xavi Aparicio

59'

Pau Morer← Alberto Garcia

72'

Pochito← Iker Garcia

72'

Serreta← Sergi Arranz

79'

Miki Puerto← Alfons Serra

82'

G. Fassani

89'

Izan Maldonado← Illescas

90+3'

Víctor Oribe

Vilafranca

Sant

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Joan Agüera

79'▲Miki Puerto←▼Alfons Serra

89'▲Izan Maldonado←▼Illescas

Vilafranca substitutes

PuertoMaldonado

Manager: Molist

55'▲J. Carreón←▼Xavi Aparicio

59'▲Pau Morer←▼Alberto Garcia

72'▲Pochito←▼Iker Garcia

72'▲Serreta←▼Sergi Arranz

Sant Andreu substitutes

CarreónMorerPochitoSerreta

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilafranca 1–1 Sant Andreu

Vilafranca and Sant Andreu drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 11, 2022.

Goals: G. Fassani (82'), Víctor Oribe (90+3').

The match was played at Estadi Zem de Vilafranca del Penedès in Vilafranca del Penedès.

Vilafranca vs Sant Andreu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilafranca 1–1 Sant Andreu