Sant Andreu 0–1 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

Sant Andreu

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vilafranca

David Acedo 63'

12/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Camp Municipal Narcís Sala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sant Andreu52%

×Draw25%

Vilafranca23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sant AndreuExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.95

Sant Andreu

1.58

Vilafranca

0.95

Sant Andreu creates 66% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 74 away

1.56

creates per match

1.12

0.78

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sant Andreu

1.56

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

Sant Andreu

0.78

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sant Andreu ↓

Vilafranca →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sant Andreu or draw

77%

Sant Andreu or Vilafranca

75%

Draw or Vilafranca

48%

Winning margin

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

27%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

Team goals

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

79%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

47%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

21%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

61%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

25%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

70%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sant Andreu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sant Andreu attack 1.56 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Sant Andreu defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sant Andreu scores more

52%

level

25%

Vilafranca scores more

23%

Sant Andreu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

David Acedo

64'

Marc Doménech← Eric López

70'

Anselm Pasquina← Carlos Cano

70'

Xavi Arjona← Pol Vía

79'

Abel Cortina← Illescas

83'

Adri Expósito← Pau Morer

83'

Marc García← Dani Argilaga

87'

Sergio Mulero← L. Sunderland

87'

Max Bernard← David Acedo

Sant

Vilafranca

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Pirri

64'▲Marc Doménech←▼Eric López

83'▲Adri Expósito←▼Pau Morer

83'▲Marc García←▼Dani Argilaga

87'▲Sergio Mulero←▼L. Sunderland

Sant Andreu substitutes

DoménechExpósitoGarcíaMulero

Manager: Iván Moreno

70'▲Anselm Pasquina←▼Carlos Cano

70'▲Xavi Arjona←▼Pol Vía

79'▲Abel Cortina←▼Illescas

87'▲Max Bernard←▼David Acedo

Vilafranca substitutes

PasquinaArjonaCortinaBernard

Match Recap: Sant Andreu vs Vilafranca

Vilafranca beat Sant Andreu 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 18, 2021.

Goals: David Acedo (63').

The match was played at Camp Municipal Narcís Sala in Barcelona.

Sant Andreu vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sant Andreu vs Vilafranca