Vilafranca 1–0 Reddis: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Reddis

David Toro 17' (pen)

9/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vilafranca37%

×Draw29%

Reddis34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.07

Vilafranca

1.13

Reddis

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 34 away

1.19

creates per match

1.15

0.99

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Reddis →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

66%

Vilafranca or Reddis

71%

Draw or Reddis

63%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

15%

Reddis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

68%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

31%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

11%

Reddis 1+ goals

66%

Reddis 2+ goals

29%

Reddis 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

52%

Reddis (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Reddis attack 1.15 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vilafranca scores more

37%

level

29%

Reddis scores more

34%

Vilafranca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

David ToroPenalty

35'

Aitor Serrano← Dani Argilaga

46'

Nico Díaz← Alex Fernández

46'

Albert Miravent← Ramón Sardà

58'

Arnau Cuadras← Pedro Bilbao

58'

Ale Frutos← Gerard Ramón

77'

Sergi Escofet← David Toro

83'

Sebastian Romero← Víctor Oribe

86'

Isaac Olmo← Genís Cargol

86'

Jordi Aumatell← Adrián Toro

Vilafranca

Reddis

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Triguero

58'▲Arnau Cuadras←▼Pedro Bilbao

58'▲Ale Frutos←▼Gerard Ramón

77'▲Sergi Escofet←▼David Toro

86'▲Isaac Olmo←▼Genís Cargol

86'▲Jordi Aumatell←▼Adrián Toro

Vilafranca substitutes

CuadrasFrutosEscofetOlmoAumatell

Manager: Marc Carrasco

35'▲Aitor Serrano←▼Dani Argilaga

46'▲Nico Díaz←▼Alex Fernández

46'▲Albert Miravent←▼Ramón Sardà

83'▲Sebastian Romero←▼Víctor Oribe

Reddis substitutes

SerranoDíazMiraventRomero

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Reddis

Vilafranca beat Reddis 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 16, 2023.

Goals: David Toro (17' pen).

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.

Vilafranca vs Reddis — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Reddis