Reddis 0–1 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

Reddis

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vilafranca

Xavier Pluvins 49' (pen)

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 19Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis53%

×Draw26%

Vilafranca21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.85

Reddis

1.53

Vilafranca

0.85

Reddis creates 80% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 74 away

1.47

creates per match

1.12

0.59

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Vilafranca →

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

79%

Reddis or Vilafranca

74%

Draw or Vilafranca

47%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

28%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

78%

Reddis 2+ goals

45%

Reddis 3+ goals

20%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

57%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

21%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

72%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Reddis scores more

53%

level

26%

Vilafranca scores more

21%

Reddis at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

G. Ramon

46'

Sergi Cadena← Jordi Aumatell

49'

Xavier PluvinsPenalty

57'

Ramón Sardà← Albert Miravent

64'

Adrián Toro← Xavier Pluvins

70'

Ion Perelló← Aitor Serrano

83'

Pol Benito← Nico Díaz

83'

Marti de Castro← Arnau Cañas

83'

Yeray← Pedro Bilbao

90+2'

Enric Bernat← Ale Frutos

Reddis

Vilafranca

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marc Carrasco

57'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Albert Miravent

70'▲Ion Perelló←▼Aitor Serrano

83'▲Pol Benito←▼Nico Díaz

Reddis substitutes

SardàPerellóBenito

Manager: Triguero

46'▲Sergi Cadena←▼Jordi Aumatell

64'▲Adrián Toro←▼Xavier Pluvins

83'▲Marti de Castro←▼Arnau Cañas

83'▲Yeray←▼Pedro Bilbao

90+2'▲Enric Bernat←▼Ale Frutos

Vilafranca substitutes

CadenaToroCastroYerayBernat