Vilafranca 1–3 L'Escala: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

L'Escala

Sergi Cadena 23'

Iker Garcia 90+3'

Pablo Calvete 63'

Xumetra 45+1'

2/25/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 22Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vilafranca48%

×Draw27%

L'Escala25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchL'Escala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.97

Vilafranca

1.44

L'Escala

0.97

Vilafranca creates 48% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 51 away

1.19

creates per match

0.96

0.99

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

L'Escala

0.96

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

L'Escala

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

L'Escala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

L'Escala →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

75%

Vilafranca or L'Escala

73%

Draw or L'Escala

52%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

24%

L'Escala wins by 2+

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

76%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

42%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

18%

L'Escala 1+ goals

62%

L'Escala 2+ goals

25%

L'Escala 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

65%

L'Escala (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

L'Escala away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + L'Escala defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

L'Escala attack 0.96 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vilafranca scores more

48%

level

27%

L'Escala scores more

25%

Vilafranca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Sergi Cadena

45+1'

Xumetra

46'

Adrián Toro← Marti de Castro

46'

I. Nemoto← Josu Currais

57'

Dani Rubio← Eric Vía

59'

Iker Garcia← Adrià Ramirez

63'

Pablo Calvete

66'

Arnau Cañas← Enric Bernat

66'

R. Idbouiguiguine← Jordi Aumatell

79'

Gerard Ramón← Carlos García

80'

P. Valencia← Pablo Calvete

87'

Roger Fortuny← Xumetra

87'

Maha← Eric Pimentel

90+3'

Iker Garcia

Vilafranca

L'Escala

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Triguero

46'▲Adrián Toro←▼Marti de Castro

57'▲Dani Rubio←▼Eric Vía

66'▲Arnau Cañas←▼Enric Bernat

66'▲R. Idbouiguiguine←▼Jordi Aumatell

79'▲Gerard Ramón←▼Carlos García

Vilafranca substitutes

ToroRubioCañasIdbouiguiguineRamón

Manager: Aday

46'▲I. Nemoto←▼Josu Currais

59'▲Iker Garcia←▼Adrià Ramirez

80'▲P. Valencia←▼Pablo Calvete

87'▲Roger Fortuny←▼Xumetra

87'▲Maha←▼Eric Pimentel

L'Escala substitutes

NemotoGarciaValenciaFortunyMaha

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs L'Escala

L'Escala beat Vilafranca 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 25, 2024.

Goals: Sergi Cadena (23'), Xumetra (45+1'), Pablo Calvete (63'), Iker Garcia (90+3').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.

Vilafranca vs L'Escala — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs L'Escala