L'Escala 3–0 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

L'Escala

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vilafranca

Josu Currais 78'

Xumetra 73', 14'

10/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Estadi Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

L'Escala49%

×Draw24%

Vilafranca27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'EscalaExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.20

L'Escala

1.70

Vilafranca

1.20

L'Escala creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 74 away

1.80

creates per match

1.12

1.27

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

L'Escala

1.80

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

L'Escala

1.27

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Escala+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Escala ↓

Vilafranca →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

L'Escala or draw

73%

L'Escala or Vilafranca

76%

Draw or Vilafranca

51%

Winning margin

L'Escala wins by 2+

26%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

L'Escala 1+ goals

82%

L'Escala 2+ goals

51%

L'Escala 3+ goals

24%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

70%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

34%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

L'Escala (draw refunded)

64%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Escala at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Escala attack 1.80 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + L'Escala defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

L'Escala scores more

49%

level

24%

Vilafranca scores more

27%

L'Escala at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "L'Escala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Xumetra

46'

P. Valencia← Pablo Calvete

46'

Marti de Castro← Sergi Escofet

46'

Sergi Cadena← Ale Frutos

55'

Maha← Adrià Ramirez

65'

Jordi Aumatell← Pedro Bilbao

65'

Adrián Toro← Xavier Pluvins

70'

David Grifell← Eric Pimentel

73'

Xumetra

78'

Josu Currais

79'

Genís Balaguer← Josu Currais

81'

Gerard Ramón← Toni Cunill

L'Escala

Vilafranca

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Arnau Sala

46'▲P. Valencia←▼Pablo Calvete

55'▲Maha←▼Adrià Ramirez

70'▲David Grifell←▼Eric Pimentel

79'▲Genís Balaguer←▼Josu Currais

L'Escala substitutes

ValenciaMahaGrifellBalaguer

Manager: Triguero

46'▲Marti de Castro←▼Sergi Escofet

46'▲Sergi Cadena←▼Ale Frutos

65'▲Jordi Aumatell←▼Pedro Bilbao

65'▲Adrián Toro←▼Xavier Pluvins

81'▲Gerard Ramón←▼Toni Cunill

Vilafranca substitutes

CastroCadenaAumatellToroRamón

Match Recap: L'Escala vs Vilafranca

L'Escala beat Vilafranca 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 8, 2023.

Goals: Xumetra (14', 73'), Josu Currais (78').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal in L'Escala.

L'Escala vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: L'Escala vs Vilafranca