Vilafranca 1–0 Castelldefels: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Castelldefels

12/3/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Vilafranca40%

×Draw29%

Castelldefels31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchCastelldefels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.03

Vilafranca

1.21

Castelldefels

1.03

Vilafranca creates 17% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 74 away

1.19

creates per match

1.07

0.99

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

Castelldefels

1.07

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

Castelldefels

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Castelldefels →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

69%

Vilafranca or Castelldefels

71%

Draw or Castelldefels

60%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

17%

Castelldefels wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

70%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

34%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

12%

Castelldefels 1+ goals

64%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

28%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

56%

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vilafranca scores more

40%

level

29%

Castelldefels scores more

31%

Vilafranca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff