Castelldefels 0–0 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

Castelldefels

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vilafranca

10/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Castelldefels40%

×Draw27%

Vilafranca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastelldefelsExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.18

Castelldefels

1.31

Vilafranca

1.18

Castelldefels creates 11% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 74 away

1.03

creates per match

1.12

1.24

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Castelldefels

1.03

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

Castelldefels

1.24

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Vilafranca →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw

67%

Castelldefels or Vilafranca

73%

Draw or Vilafranca

60%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+

18%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

73%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

38%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

14%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

69%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

33%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

54%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Castelldefels scores more

40%

level

27%

Vilafranca scores more

33%

Castelldefels at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

Alberto Salamanca← Álex Segura

64'

Miki Puerto← Jonathan Ferreira

64'

Izan Maldonado← David Toro

64'

Iker Hernández← Víctor Oribe

70'

Pablo Franco← Rubén Gimenez

75'

A. Kerobyan← Aleix Díaz

75'

Illescas← Alfons Serra

86'

Juanito← Alan Liesegang

86'

Kevin Díaz← Dani Sánchez

Castelldefels

Vilafranca

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Manager: Miki Carrillo

57'▲Alberto Salamanca←▼Álex Segura

70'▲Pablo Franco←▼Rubén Gimenez

86'▲Juanito←▼Alan Liesegang

86'▲Kevin Díaz←▼Dani Sánchez

Castelldefels substitutes

SalamancaFrancoJuanitoDíaz

Manager: Iván Moreno

64'▲Miki Puerto←▼Jonathan Ferreira

64'▲Izan Maldonado←▼David Toro

64'▲Iker Hernández←▼Víctor Oribe

75'▲A. Kerobyan←▼Aleix Díaz

75'▲Illescas←▼Alfons Serra

Vilafranca substitutes

PuertoMaldonadoHernándezKerobyanIllescas