Vila Nova 1–0 Tombense: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vila Nova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tombense

6/28/2023

Serie B · Round 14Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Vila Nova52%

×Draw28%

Tombense20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vila NovaExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.74

Vila Nova

1.38

Tombense

0.74

Vila Nova creates 86% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 38 away

1.10

creates per match

0.74

0.75

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Vila Nova

1.10

Tombense

0.74

allows per match

Vila Nova

0.75

Tombense

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vila Nova+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Nova ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vila Nova or draw

80%

Vila Nova or Tombense

72%

Draw or Tombense

48%

Winning margin

Vila Nova wins by 2+

26%

Tombense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vila Nova 1+ goals

75%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

40%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

16%

Tombense 1+ goals

52%

Tombense 2+ goals

17%

Tombense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

72%

Tombense (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Nova at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.75 · 142 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Nova attack 1.10 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tombense attack 0.74 + Vila Nova defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vila Nova scores more

52%

level

28%

Tombense scores more

20%

Vila Nova at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vila Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff