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Tombense vs Vila Nova — Serie B 2018

Tombense
Tombense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vila Nova
Vila Nova
10/19/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 33Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tombense45%
×Draw29%
Vila Nova27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.27
Vila Nova
0.91

Tombense creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 143 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.24
Vila Nova
0.92

allows per match

Tombense
0.89
Vila Nova
1.29

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Vila Nova+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Vila Nova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
73%
Tombense or Vila Nova
71%
Draw or Vila Nova
55%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
20%
Vila Nova wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
72%
Tombense 2+ goals
36%
Tombense 3+ goals
14%
Vila Nova 1+ goals
60%
Vila Nova 2+ goals
23%
Vila Nova 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
63%
Vila Nova (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.29 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.24 + Vila Nova defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vila Nova attack 0.92 + Tombense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tombense scores more
45%
level
29%
Vila Nova scores more
27%

Tombense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Tombense 2–1 Vila Nova

Tombense beat Vila Nova 2-1 in Serie B on October 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida in Tombos, Minas Gerais.