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Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta — Serie B 2026

Vila Nova
Vila Nova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta
9/15/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 28Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Vila Nova47%
×Draw26%
Ponte Preta27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vila Nova
1.47
Ponte Preta
1.05

Vila Nova creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vila Nova
1.31
Ponte Preta
0.96

allows per match

Vila Nova
1.14
Ponte Preta
1.62

finishing

Vila Nova+0.34scores more
Ponte Preta-0.05on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Nova ↓

Ponte Preta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vila Nova or draw
73%
Vila Nova or Ponte Preta
74%
Draw or Ponte Preta
53%

Winning margin

Vila Nova wins by 2+
23%
Ponte Preta wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vila Nova 1+ goals
77%
Vila Nova 2+ goals
43%
Vila Nova 3+ goals
18%
Ponte Preta 1+ goals
65%
Ponte Preta 2+ goals
28%
Ponte Preta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vila Nova (draw refunded)
63%
Ponte Preta (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Nova at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 17 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.62 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Nova attack 1.31 + Ponte Preta defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ponte Preta attack 0.96 + Vila Nova defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vila Nova scores more
47%
level
26%
Ponte Preta scores more
27%

Vila Nova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vila Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Vila Nova 1–1 Ponte Preta

Vila Nova and Ponte Preta drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga in Goiânia, Goiás.