Ponte Preta 1–0 Vila Nova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ponte Preta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vila Nova

5/28/2023

Serie B · Round 9Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Ponte Preta42%

×Draw27%

Vila Nova31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchVila Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.13

Ponte Preta

1.36

Vila Nova

1.13

Ponte Preta creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.41

creates per match

0.95

1.31

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.41

Vila Nova

0.95

allows per match

Ponte Preta

1.31

Vila Nova

1.32

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Ponte Preta-0.49scores less

Vila Nova+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Vila Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

69%

Ponte Preta or Vila Nova

73%

Draw or Vila Nova

58%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

20%

Vila Nova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

74%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

39%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

16%

Vila Nova 1+ goals

68%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

31%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

57%

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.41 + Vila Nova defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vila Nova attack 0.95 + Ponte Preta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

42%

level

27%

Vila Nova scores more

31%

Ponte Preta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff