Vila Nova 1–0 Mirassol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vila Nova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mirassol

Henrique Almeida 68'

6/21/2024

Serie B · Round 11Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Vila Nova47%

×Draw28%

Mirassol25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vila NovaExpected goals in this matchMirassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.86

Vila Nova

1.31

Mirassol

0.86

Vila Nova creates 52% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

1.37

creates per match

0.72

1.00

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Vila Nova

1.37

Mirassol

0.72

allows per match

Vila Nova

1.00

Mirassol

1.26

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Vila Nova+0.27scores more

Mirassol-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Nova ↓

Mirassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vila Nova or draw

75%

Vila Nova or Mirassol

72%

Draw or Mirassol

53%

Winning margin

Vila Nova wins by 2+

22%

Mirassol wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vila Nova 1+ goals

73%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

38%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

14%

Mirassol 1+ goals

58%

Mirassol 2+ goals

21%

Mirassol 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

66%

Mirassol (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Nova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Mirassol away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Nova attack 1.37 + Mirassol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mirassol attack 0.72 + Vila Nova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vila Nova scores more

47%

level

28%

Mirassol scores more

25%

Vila Nova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vila Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Dênis Júnior

Vila Nova · G

7.6

Match Events

-5'

Bruno Matias

24'

Neto Moura

40'

João Vitor

46'

Ralf← João Vitor

46'

Isaque← Fernandinho

56'

Henrique Almeida

62'

João Victor

62'

João Lucas← Luciano Naninho

62'

Rhuan Ferreira← Eric

68'

Henrique Almeida↳ Elias

69'

Chico← Negueba

72'

Apodi← Juan Christian

75'

Lucas Gazal← Warley

76'

Diego Quirino← Neto Moura

81'

Cristiano

81'

Diego Quirino

83'

Guilherme Lacerda← Henrique Almeida

85'

Paulo Henrique← Lucas Ramon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VilaMirassol

Overview

40%Possession60%

13Total Shots13

1.21Expected Goals (xG)1.47

6Corners9

17Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots13

3On Target4

6Off Target5

4Blocked4

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

318Total Passes484

251Accurate Passes402

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1