Mirassol 1–1 Vila Nova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mirassol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vila Nova

Lucas Ramon 11'

Caio Dantas 1'

5/6/2023

Serie B · Round 5Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mirassol53%

×Draw28%

Vila Nova19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirassolExpected goals in this matchVila Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.69

Mirassol

1.38

Vila Nova

0.69

Mirassol creates 100% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

1.53

creates per match

0.93

0.44

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Mirassol

1.53

Vila Nova

0.93

allows per match

Mirassol

0.44

Vila Nova

1.23

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Mirassol+0.18scores more

Vila Nova-0.07on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

Vila Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw

81%

Mirassol or Vila Nova

72%

Draw or Vila Nova

47%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+

26%

Vila Nova wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals

75%

Mirassol 2+ goals

40%

Mirassol 3+ goals

16%

Vila Nova 1+ goals

50%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

15%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)

74%

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.44 · 7 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.53 + Vila Nova defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vila Nova attack 0.93 + Mirassol defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mirassol scores more

53%

level

28%

Vila Nova scores more

19%

Mirassol at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Caio Dantas

Vila Nova · F

7.2

Match Events

1'

Caio Dantas

11'

Lucas Ramon↳ Luiz Otávio

18'

23'

45+6'

46'

46'

58'

58'

Ronald← Éverton Brito

58'

Rian← Léo Duarte

61'

Rian Pacheco

62'

Chico

63'

Heitor← Lucas Ramon

64'

Flávio← Chico

64'

Matheus Souza← Ronald

73'

Paulinho← Leandro Vilela

82'

Luciano Naninho← Lourenço

85'

Gabriel

86'

Silvinho← Negueba

Shots

Statistics

MirassolVila

Overview

1Total Shots1

1Fouls1

Shots

1Total Shots1

1On Target1

0Off Target0

0Blocked0

1Inside Box1

Discipline

1Fouls1

4Yellow Cards3