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Vila Nova vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

Vila Nova
Vila Nova
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Londrina
Londrina
11/10/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 36Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vila Nova46%
×Draw26%
Londrina28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vila Nova
1.48
Londrina
1.11

Vila Nova creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vila Nova
1.13
Londrina
1.10

allows per match

Vila Nova
1.12
Londrina
1.82

finishing

Vila Nova+0.87scores more
Londrina+0.30scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Nova ↓

Londrina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vila Nova or draw
72%
Vila Nova or Londrina
74%
Draw or Londrina
54%

Winning margin

Vila Nova wins by 2+
23%
Londrina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vila Nova 1+ goals
77%
Vila Nova 2+ goals
43%
Vila Nova 3+ goals
19%
Londrina 1+ goals
67%
Londrina 2+ goals
30%
Londrina 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vila Nova (draw refunded)
62%
Londrina (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Nova at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.12 · 5 matches

Londrina away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.82 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Nova attack 1.13 + Londrina defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Londrina attack 1.10 + Vila Nova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vila Nova scores more
46%
level
26%
Londrina scores more
28%

Vila Nova at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vila Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vila Nova vs Londrina

Vila Nova beat Londrina 4-1 in Serie B on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga in Goiânia, Goiás.