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Londrina vs Vila Nova — Serie B 2026

Londrina
Londrina
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vila Nova
Vila Nova
4/29/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 5Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Londrina43%
×Draw28%
Vila Nova29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Londrina
1.27
Vila Nova
1.00

Londrina creates 27% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 143 away

creates per match

Londrina
1.24
Vila Nova
0.92

allows per match

Londrina
1.08
Vila Nova
1.29

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par
Vila Nova+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

Vila Nova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Londrina or draw
71%
Londrina or Vila Nova
72%
Draw or Vila Nova
57%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+
19%
Vila Nova wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals
72%
Londrina 2+ goals
36%
Londrina 3+ goals
14%
Vila Nova 1+ goals
63%
Vila Nova 2+ goals
26%
Vila Nova 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)
59%
Vila Nova (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.08 · 106 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.29 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.24 + Vila Nova defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vila Nova attack 0.92 + Londrina defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Londrina scores more
43%
level
28%
Vila Nova scores more
29%

Londrina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Londrina vs Vila Nova

Londrina and Vila Nova drew 2-2 in Serie B on April 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff in Londrina, Paraná.