Vila Nova 1–0 Ituano: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vila Nova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ituano

Guilherme Parede 12'

5/24/2023

Serie B · Round 8Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Vila Nova48%

×Draw28%

Ituano24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vila NovaExpected goals in this matchItuano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.84

Vila Nova

1.33

Ituano

0.84

Vila Nova creates 58% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 57 away

1.18

creates per match

0.96

0.72

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Vila Nova

1.18

Ituano

0.96

allows per match

Vila Nova

0.72

Ituano

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vila Nova+0.00on par

Ituano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Nova ↓

Ituano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vila Nova or draw

76%

Vila Nova or Ituano

72%

Draw or Ituano

52%

Winning margin

Vila Nova wins by 2+

23%

Ituano wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vila Nova 1+ goals

74%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

38%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

15%

Ituano 1+ goals

57%

Ituano 2+ goals

21%

Ituano 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

67%

Ituano (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Nova at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.72 · 126 matches

Ituano away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Nova attack 1.18 + Ituano defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ituano attack 0.96 + Vila Nova defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vila Nova scores more

48%

level

28%

Ituano scores more

24%

Vila Nova at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vila Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Rafael Donato

Vila Nova · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

26'

26'

35'

46'

Hélio Borges← Paulo Victor

54'

Léo Duarte

57'

Sousa← Caio Dantas

58'

Marcondes← Doma

58'

Igor Henrique← Lourenço

61'

Felipe Saraiva← Neto Berola

61'

Diego Quirino← Lucas Siqueira

63'

Rian← Léo Duarte

64'

Marthã Fernando

68'

Thiaguinho

73'

Claudinho

76'

Yann Rolim← Thiaguinho

86'

Yann Rollim

87'

Marlone← Matheus Souza

87'

Alejandro← Eduardo Person

90+4'

Guilherme Pacheco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VilaItuano

Overview

39%Possession61%

22Total Shots9

6Corners8

19Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots9

6On Target3

10Off Target5

6Blocked1

8Inside Box4

14Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

324Total Passes516

240Accurate Passes412

74%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls12

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1