Ituano 1–2 Vila Nova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ituano

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Vila Nova

Diego Quirino 86'

Caio Dantas 10'

Igor Henrique 7'

9/8/2023

Serie B · Round 27Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ituano43%

×Draw30%

Vila Nova27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItuanoExpected goals in this matchVila Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.89

Ituano

1.20

Vila Nova

0.89

Ituano creates 35% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 122 away

1.11

creates per match

0.90

0.88

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Ituano

1.11

Vila Nova

0.90

allows per match

Ituano

0.88

Vila Nova

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano+0.00on par

Vila Nova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano ↓

Vila Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ituano or draw

73%

Ituano or Vila Nova

70%

Draw or Vila Nova

57%

Winning margin

Ituano wins by 2+

19%

Vila Nova wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ituano 1+ goals

70%

Ituano 2+ goals

34%

Ituano 3+ goals

12%

Vila Nova 1+ goals

59%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

22%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ituano (draw refunded)

61%

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.28 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano attack 1.11 + Vila Nova defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Vila Nova attack 0.90 + Ituano defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ituano scores more

43%

level

30%

Vila Nova scores more

27%

Ituano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ituano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Lucas Siqueira

Ituano · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Igor Henrique↳ Guilherme Parede

10'

Caio Dantas↳ Juan Christian

46'

Rhuan← Iury

64'

Kauan Richard

64'

Mário Sérgio← Richard

64'

Felipe Saraiva← Rafael Carvalheira

66'

Éverton Brito← Juan Christian

66'

Neto Pessoa← Caio Dantas

71'

Rodrigo

75'

Felipe Saraiva

77'

Diego Quirino← Yann Rolim

80'

Marlone← Igor Henrique

85'

Kaíque← Wesley Pomba

86'

Diego Quirino↳ Lucas Siqueira

90+2'

Cristiano← Guilherme Parede

90+2'

Marcelinho← Léo Duarte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ItuanoVila

Overview

69%Possession31%

26Total Shots9

8Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

26Total Shots9

6On Target3

12Off Target4

8Blocked2

13Inside Box5

13Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

537Total Passes247

444Accurate Passes149

83%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1