Vila Nova 0–3 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vila Nova

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Coritiba

Lucas Ronier 87'

Natanael 43'

Júnior Brumado 33'

10/19/2024

Serie B · Round 32Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Vila Nova40%

×Draw27%

Coritiba33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vila NovaExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.14

Vila Nova

1.29

Coritiba

1.14

Vila Nova creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.20

creates per match

1.09

1.18

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Vila Nova

1.20

Coritiba

1.09

allows per match

Vila Nova

1.18

Coritiba

1.37

+0.80scores more than expected

finishing

-0.65scores less than expected

finishing

Vila Nova+0.80scores more

Coritiba-0.65scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vila Nova ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vila Nova or draw

67%

Vila Nova or Coritiba

73%

Draw or Coritiba

60%

Winning margin

Vila Nova wins by 2+

18%

Coritiba wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vila Nova 1+ goals

72%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

37%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

14%

Coritiba 1+ goals

68%

Coritiba 2+ goals

32%

Coritiba 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

55%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vila Nova at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vila Nova attack 1.20 + Coritiba defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Coritiba attack 1.09 + Vila Nova defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vila Nova scores more

40%

level

27%

Coritiba scores more

33%

Vila Nova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vila Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Bruno Melo

Coritiba · D

8.3

Match Events

7'

Júnior Brumado

28'

Marcelo Benevenuto

33'

Júnior Brumado↳ Bruno Melo

43'

Natanael↳ S. Gómez

46'

Arilson← Ralf

52'

Dankler

60'

IgorPenalty cancelled

63'

Vini Paulista

64'

Luciano Naninho← Henrique Almeida

66'

Zé Gabriel← Josué

66'

Maurício Antônio← Marcelo Benevenuto

73'

Robson← Júnior Brumado

73'

Figueiredo← Matheus Frizzo

75'

Apodi← Gabriel Silva

81'

RobsonPenalty confirmed

84'

Matheus Bianqui← S. Gómez

86'

Á. Silva← Cristiano

87'

Lucas Ronier↳ Bruno Melo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VilaCoritiba

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots13

8Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots13

5On Target3

7Off Target6

5Blocked4

8Inside Box5

9Outside Box8

Passing

60%Possession40%

400Total Passes270

332Accurate Passes220

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1