Coritiba 1–1 Vila Nova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Coritiba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vila Nova

Robson 90+3' (pen)

Henrique Almeida 46'

6/29/2024

Serie B · Round 13Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Coritiba48%

×Draw27%

Vila Nova26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchVila Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.98

Coritiba

1.45

Vila Nova

0.98

Coritiba creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.58

creates per match

1.03

0.94

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Coritiba

1.58

Vila Nova

1.03

allows per match

Coritiba

0.94

Vila Nova

1.32

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Coritiba-0.36scores less

Vila Nova+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Vila Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

74%

Coritiba or Vila Nova

73%

Draw or Vila Nova

52%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

24%

Vila Nova wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

77%

Coritiba 2+ goals

42%

Coritiba 3+ goals

18%

Vila Nova 1+ goals

62%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

26%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

65%

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.94 · 9 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.58 + Vila Nova defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Vila Nova attack 1.03 + Coritiba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Coritiba scores more

48%

level

27%

Vila Nova scores more

26%

Coritiba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Dênis Júnior

Vila Nova · G

9.0

Match Events

23'

Everton MorelliGoal cancelled

42'

Robson

46'

Jamerson← Rodrigo Gelado

46'

Figueiredo← Brandão

46'

Henrique Almeida↳ Cristiano

58'

Wesley Pomba← Everton Morelli

71'

72'

72'

75'

77'

80'

Leandro Damião← Vini Paulista

80'

João Vitor← Juan Christian

88'

Matheus Bianqui← Matheus Frizzo

88'

Apodi← Jemmes

88'

Guilherme Lacerda← Henrique Almeida

90+1'

NatanaelPenalty confirmed

90+3'

RobsonPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaVila

Overview

57%Possession43%

25Total Shots11

13Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

25Total Shots11

12On Target3

7Off Target6

6Blocked2

18Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

452Total Passes357

368Accurate Passes269

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves11

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2