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Viktoria Žižkov vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Viktoria Žižkov
Viktoria Žižkov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
10/30/20223. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 13eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Viktoria Žižkov68%
×Draw19%
Sokol Živanice13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Žižkov
2.17
Sokol Živanice
0.83

Viktoria Žižkov creates 161% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

creates per match

Viktoria Žižkov
2.47
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Viktoria Žižkov
0.53
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Žižkov ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Viktoria Žižkov or draw
87%
Viktoria Žižkov or Sokol Živanice
81%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
32%

Winning margin

Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+
44%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals
89%
Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals
64%
Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals
36%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
56%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
20%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)
84%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Žižkov at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Žižkov attack 2.47 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.17

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Viktoria Žižkov scores more
68%
level
19%
Sokol Živanice scores more
13%

Viktoria Žižkov at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Viktoria Žižkov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Viktoria Žižkov 2–0 Sokol Živanice

Viktoria Žižkov beat Sokol Živanice 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at eFotbal aréna in Praha.