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Viktoria Žižkov vs FK Jablonec — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Viktoria Žižkov
Viktoria Žižkov
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
1/17/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportareal Satalice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Viktoria Žižkov52%
×Draw19%
FK Jablonec29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Žižkov
2.61
FK Jablonec
1.94

Viktoria Žižkov creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Viktoria Žižkov
3.00
FK Jablonec
2.00

allows per match

Viktoria Žižkov
1.88
FK Jablonec
2.22

finishing

Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par
FK Jablonec+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Žižkov ↓

FK Jablonec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Viktoria Žižkov or draw
71%
Viktoria Žižkov or FK Jablonec
81%
Draw or FK Jablonec
48%

Winning margin

Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+
33%
FK Jablonec wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals
93%
Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals
73%
Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals
47%
FK Jablonec 1+ goals
86%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
58%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)
64%
FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Žižkov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Žižkov attack 3.00 + FK Jablonec defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.61

FK Jablonec attack 2.00 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Viktoria Žižkov scores more
52%
level
19%
FK Jablonec scores more
29%

Viktoria Žižkov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Viktoria Žižkov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Žižkov vs FK Jablonec

Viktoria Žižkov beat FK Jablonec 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportareal Satalice UMT in Praha.