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Viktoria Žižkov vs Dukla Praha — FNL 2019

Viktoria Žižkov
Viktoria Žižkov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
9/24/2021FNLFNL · Round 9eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Viktoria Žižkov39%
×Draw25%
Dukla Praha36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Žižkov
1.47
Dukla Praha
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 73 away

creates per match

Viktoria Žižkov
1.53
Dukla Praha
1.41

allows per match

Viktoria Žižkov
1.39
Dukla Praha
1.41

finishing

Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par
Dukla Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Žižkov ↓

Dukla Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Viktoria Žižkov or draw
64%
Viktoria Žižkov or Dukla Praha
75%
Draw or Dukla Praha
61%

Winning margin

Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+
19%
Dukla Praha wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals
43%
Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals
18%
Dukla Praha 1+ goals
75%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
41%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)
52%
Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Žižkov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.39 · 88 matches

Dukla Praha away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Žižkov attack 1.53 + Dukla Praha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Dukla Praha attack 1.41 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Viktoria Žižkov scores more
39%
level
25%
Dukla Praha scores more
36%

Viktoria Žižkov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Viktoria Žižkov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Viktoria Žižkov 1–1 Dukla Praha

Viktoria Žižkov and Dukla Praha drew 1-1 in FNL on September 24, 2021.

The match was played at eFotbal aréna in Praha.