Dukla Praha 3–1 Viktoria Žižkov: Result & Stats

Dukla Praha

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Viktoria Žižkov

4/13/2022

FNL · Round 23Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dukla Praha53%

×Draw23%

Viktoria Žižkov25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla PrahaExpected goals in this matchViktoria Žižkov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.21

Dukla Praha

1.88

Viktoria Žižkov

1.21

Dukla Praha creates 55% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 88 away

1.93

creates per match

1.30

1.12

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Dukla Praha

1.93

Viktoria Žižkov

1.30

allows per match

Dukla Praha

1.12

Viktoria Žižkov

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.00on par

Viktoria Žižkov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Viktoria Žižkov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw

75%

Dukla Praha or Viktoria Žižkov

77%

Draw or Viktoria Žižkov

47%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+

30%

Viktoria Žižkov wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals

85%

Dukla Praha 2+ goals

56%

Dukla Praha 3+ goals

29%

Viktoria Žižkov 1+ goals

70%

Viktoria Žižkov 2+ goals

34%

Viktoria Žižkov 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)

68%

Viktoria Žižkov (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

Viktoria Žižkov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.82 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 1.93 + Viktoria Žižkov defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

Viktoria Žižkov attack 1.30 + Dukla Praha defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dukla Praha scores more

53%

level

23%

Viktoria Žižkov scores more

25%

Dukla Praha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff