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Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Roma U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Roma U19
Roma U19
12/12/2018UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Luční UMT (Plzeň)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1928%
×Draw20%
Roma U1952%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.67
Roma U19
2.33

Roma U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.33
Roma U19
2.33

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.33
Roma U19
2.00

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par
Roma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Roma U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw
48%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Roma U19
80%
Draw or Roma U19
72%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
13%
Roma U19 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
81%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
50%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
23%
Roma U19 1+ goals
90%
Roma U19 2+ goals
67%
Roma U19 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Roma U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Roma U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.33 + Roma U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Roma U19 attack 2.33 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
28%
level
20%
Roma U19 scores more
52%

Roma U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Roma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viktoria Plzeň U19 2 – 4 Roma U19

Roma U19 beat Viktoria Plzeň U19 4-2 in UEFA Youth League on December 12, 2018.

The match was played at Luční UMT (Plzeň).