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Roma U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Roma U19
Roma U19
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
10/2/2018UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Stadio Tre Fontane (Roma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Roma U1935%
×Draw18%
Viktoria Plzeň U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roma U19
2.42
Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.75

Viktoria Plzeň U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Roma U19
2.33
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.83

allows per match

Roma U19
3.67
Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.50

finishing

Roma U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Roma U19 or draw
54%
Roma U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19
82%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19
65%

Winning margin

Roma U19 wins by 2+
20%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Roma U19 1+ goals
91%
Roma U19 2+ goals
69%
Roma U19 3+ goals
43%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
93%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
75%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Roma U19 (draw refunded)
44%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U19 attack 2.33 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.83 + Roma U19 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roma U19 scores more
35%
level
18%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
46%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Roma U19 3 – 4 Viktoria Plzeň U19

Viktoria Plzeň U19 beat Roma U19 4-3 in UEFA Youth League on October 2, 2018.

The match was played at Stadio Tre Fontane (Roma).