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Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Bayern München U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bayern München U19
Bayern München U19
10/12/2022UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1929%
×Draw21%
Bayern München U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.56
Bayern München U19
2.08

Bayern München U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.33
Bayern München U19
1.84

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.33
Bayern München U19
1.79

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par
Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw
50%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Bayern München U19
79%
Draw or Bayern München U19
71%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
14%
Bayern München U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
79%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
46%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
21%
Bayern München U19 1+ goals
87%
Bayern München U19 2+ goals
61%
Bayern München U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.33 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bayern München U19 attack 1.84 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
29%
level
21%
Bayern München U19 scores more
50%

Bayern München U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Plzeň U19 vs Bayern München U19

Viktoria Plzeň U19 and Bayern München U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA Youth League on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice in Přeštice.