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Bayern München U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Bayern München U19
Bayern München U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
10/4/2022UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bayern München U1949%
×Draw20%
Viktoria Plzeň U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern München U19
2.23
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.74

Bayern München U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bayern München U19
1.95
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.83

allows per match

Bayern München U19
1.65
Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.50

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw
69%
Bayern München U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19
80%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19
51%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+
29%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals
89%
Bayern München U19 2+ goals
65%
Bayern München U19 3+ goals
38%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
82%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
52%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 1.95 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.23

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.83 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more
49%
level
20%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
31%

Bayern München U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Bayern München U19 1–2 Viktoria Plzeň U19

Viktoria Plzeň U19 beat Bayern München U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 4, 2022.

The match was played at FC Bayern Campus Platz 1 in München.