Viktoria Plzeň U19 1–1 Barcelona U19

Viktoria Plzeň U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Barcelona U19

11/1/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň U1926%

×Draw21%

Barcelona U1953%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Plzeň U19Expected goals in this matchBarcelona U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.11

Viktoria Plzeň U19

1.42

Barcelona U19

2.11

Barcelona U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

1.33

creates per match

1.89

2.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19

1.33

Barcelona U19

1.89

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň U19

2.33

Barcelona U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Barcelona U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň U19 ↓

Barcelona U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or draw

47%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 or Barcelona U19

79%

Draw or Barcelona U19

74%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+

11%

Barcelona U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals

76%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals

41%

Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals

17%

Barcelona U19 1+ goals

88%

Barcelona U19 2+ goals

62%

Barcelona U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Barcelona U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Barcelona U19 away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.33 + Barcelona U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barcelona U19 attack 1.89 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more

26%

level

21%

Barcelona U19 scores more

53%

Barcelona U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barcelona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff