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Barcelona U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Barcelona U19
Barcelona U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
9/7/2022UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barcelona U1948%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Plzeň U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona U19
2.10
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.66

Barcelona U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

Barcelona U19
1.71
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.83

allows per match

Barcelona U19
1.48
Viktoria Plzeň U19
2.50

finishing

Barcelona U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Barcelona U19 or draw
69%
Barcelona U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19
79%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19
52%

Winning margin

Barcelona U19 wins by 2+
28%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barcelona U19 1+ goals
88%
Barcelona U19 2+ goals
62%
Barcelona U19 3+ goals
35%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
81%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
49%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Barcelona U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona U19 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona U19 attack 1.71 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.83 + Barcelona U19 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Barcelona U19 scores more
48%
level
21%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
31%

Barcelona U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Barcelona U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19

Barcelona U19 beat Viktoria Plzeň U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on September 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.