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Viktoria Plzeň II vs Karlovy Vary — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Viktoria Plzeň II
Viktoria Plzeň II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Karlovy Vary
Karlovy Vary
6/1/20223. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 30Stadion TJ Slavoj Stod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Viktoria Plzeň II60%
×Draw21%
Karlovy Vary19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Plzeň II
2.04
Karlovy Vary
1.06

Viktoria Plzeň II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 52 away

creates per match

Viktoria Plzeň II
2.26
Karlovy Vary
1.06

allows per match

Viktoria Plzeň II
1.06
Karlovy Vary
1.81

finishing

Viktoria Plzeň II+0.00on par
Karlovy Vary+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Plzeň II ↓

Karlovy Vary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Viktoria Plzeň II or draw
81%
Viktoria Plzeň II or Karlovy Vary
79%
Draw or Karlovy Vary
40%

Winning margin

Viktoria Plzeň II wins by 2+
36%
Karlovy Vary wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Viktoria Plzeň II 1+ goals
87%
Viktoria Plzeň II 2+ goals
60%
Viktoria Plzeň II 3+ goals
33%
Karlovy Vary 1+ goals
65%
Karlovy Vary 2+ goals
29%
Karlovy Vary 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Plzeň II (draw refunded)
76%
Karlovy Vary (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Plzeň II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Karlovy Vary away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Plzeň II attack 2.26 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.04

Karlovy Vary attack 1.06 + Viktoria Plzeň II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Viktoria Plzeň II scores more
60%
level
21%
Karlovy Vary scores more
19%

Viktoria Plzeň II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Plzeň II vs Karlovy Vary

Viktoria Plzeň II beat Karlovy Vary 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Slavoj Stod in Stod-Plzeň-jih.