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Karlovy Vary vs Viktoria Plzeň II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Karlovy Vary
Karlovy Vary
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Viktoria Plzeň II
Viktoria Plzeň II
5/31/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 29Drahovice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Karlovy Vary37%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Plzeň II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlovy Vary
1.60
Viktoria Plzeň II
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 85 away

creates per match

Karlovy Vary
1.65
Viktoria Plzeň II
1.68

allows per match

Karlovy Vary
1.63
Viktoria Plzeň II
1.56

finishing

Karlovy Vary+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovy Vary ↓

Viktoria Plzeň II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Karlovy Vary or draw
61%
Karlovy Vary or Viktoria Plzeň II
77%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň II
63%

Winning margin

Karlovy Vary wins by 2+
18%
Viktoria Plzeň II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Karlovy Vary 1+ goals
80%
Karlovy Vary 2+ goals
47%
Karlovy Vary 3+ goals
22%
Viktoria Plzeň II 1+ goals
81%
Viktoria Plzeň II 2+ goals
49%
Viktoria Plzeň II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Karlovy Vary (draw refunded)
49%
Viktoria Plzeň II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovy Vary at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches

Viktoria Plzeň II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovy Vary attack 1.65 + Viktoria Plzeň II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Viktoria Plzeň II attack 1.68 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karlovy Vary scores more
37%
level
23%
Viktoria Plzeň II scores more
39%

Viktoria Plzeň II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Karlovy Vary 1–0 Viktoria Plzeň II

Karlovy Vary beat Viktoria Plzeň II 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Drahovice UMT in Karlovy Vary.