Viktoria Otrokovice 0–1 Tatran Bohunice

Viktoria Otrokovice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tatran Bohunice

3/22/2024

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 20Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice45%

×Draw24%

Tatran Bohunice31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria OtrokoviceExpected goals in this matchTatran Bohunice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.32

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.64

Tatran Bohunice

1.32

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

1.62

creates per match

0.88

1.77

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.62

Tatran Bohunice

0.88

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.77

Tatran Bohunice

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Tatran Bohunice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw

69%

Viktoria Otrokovice or Tatran Bohunice

76%

Draw or Tatran Bohunice

55%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

23%

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

81%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

49%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

23%

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals

73%

Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals

38%

Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

59%

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Tatran Bohunice away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tatran Bohunice attack 0.88 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

45%

level

24%

Tatran Bohunice scores more

31%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff