Tatran Bohunice 0–4 Viktoria Otrokovice

Tatran Bohunice

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Viktoria Otrokovice

O. Pernatskyi 70'

P. Gerza 64'

R. Russmann 30'

M. Krakovcik 5'

8/19/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 3Stadion Tatran Brno Bohunice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tatran Bohunice34%

×Draw24%

Viktoria Otrokovice41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tatran BohuniceExpected goals in this matchViktoria Otrokovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.60

Tatran Bohunice

1.44

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.60

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

0.88

creates per match

1.37

1.82

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Tatran Bohunice

0.88

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.37

allows per match

Tatran Bohunice

1.82

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Bohunice ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tatran Bohunice or draw

59%

Tatran Bohunice or Viktoria Otrokovice

76%

Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice

66%

Winning margin

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+

16%

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals

76%

Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals

42%

Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals

18%

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

80%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

47%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)

45%

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Bohunice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Bohunice attack 0.88 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.44

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tatran Bohunice scores more

34%

level

24%

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

41%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

M. Krakovcik

30'

R. Russmann

35'

G. S. Dano

40'

D. Smerda← D. Smerda

46'

D. Rerucha← D. Rerucha

46'

M. Bednar← M. Bednar

58'

P. Chovan← P. Chovan

58'

V. Rozek← V. Rozek

64'

P. Gerza

70'

O. Pernatskyi

71'

V. Waclawik← V. Waclawik

71'

P. Nemec← P. Nemec

71'

P. Martinek← P. Martinek

75'

I. Ilic← I. Ilic

85'

T. Koren← T. Koren

88'

M. Sehnal

90'

D. Smerda

90'

O. Pernatskyi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff