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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
P. Chovan 47'
O. Pernatskyi 33', 30' (pen)
D. Dziuba 3'
E. Sedlacek 75'
T. Dobrovodsky 61'
T. Selinger 49'
4/28/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 26Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice36%
×Draw25%
Slovan Rosice40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.44
Slovan Rosice
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.64
Slovan Rosice
1.29

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.75
Slovan Rosice
1.23

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
60%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Slovan Rosice
75%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
64%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
17%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
76%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
42%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
18%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
78%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
45%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
48%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.75 · 64 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.64 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Slovan Rosice attack 1.29 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
36%
level
25%
Slovan Rosice scores more
40%

Slovan Rosice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
D. Dziuba
30'
O. PernatskyiPenalty
33'
O. Pernatskyi
46'
D. Prerovsky← T. Dobrovodsky
46'
E. Sedlacek← E. Sedlacek
47'
P. Chovan
49'
T. Selinger
55'
P. Gerza
61'
T. Dobrovodsky
62'
T. Dobrovodsky
67'
R. Smekal← R. Smekal
75'
F. Matula← F. Matula
75'
M. Novotny← M. Novotny
75'
E. Sedlacek
78'
D. Rapavy← P. Nemec
83'
J. Kiska
85'
M. Novotny
89'
T. Selinger← K. Kulik
90+3'
K. Kulik
90+4'
D. Dziuba
90+4'
I. Ilic
90+8'
M. Guzik← M. Guzik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Viktoria Otrokovice 4–3 Slovan Rosice

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Slovan Rosice 4-3 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 28, 2023.

Goals: D. Dziuba (3'), O. Pernatskyi (30' pen, 33'), P. Chovan (47'), T. Selinger (49'), T. Dobrovodsky (61'), E. Sedlacek (75').

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice in Otrokovice.