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Slovan Rosice vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
P. Gerza 49'
10/1/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 9Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Slovan Rosice53%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Otrokovice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
1.79
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.11

Slovan Rosice creates 61% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
76%
Slovan Rosice or Viktoria Otrokovice
77%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
47%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
30%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
83%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
53%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
26%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
67%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
30%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
69%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.79

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
53%
level
23%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
24%

Slovan Rosice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. Dziuba
49'
P. Gerza
53'
J. Kubena
54'
D. Kotasek← D. Kotasek
54'
A. Fila← A. Fila
66'
D. Rapavy← D. Rapavy
67'
P. Gerza
71'
P. Chovan← P. Chovan
75'
T. Selinger← M. Kozel
75'
J. Krejci← J. Krejci
80'
R. Buchta
80'
J. Cerny
85'
T. Dobrovodsky
90'
L. Vychodil
90+2'
J. Kiska

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovan Rosice 0–1 Viktoria Otrokovice

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Slovan Rosice 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 1, 2022.

Goals: P. Gerza (49').

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.