Viktoria Otrokovice 0–5 Sigma Olomouc II

Viktoria Otrokovice

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 0

Sigma Olomouc II

3/19/2022

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 20Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice26%

×Draw22%

Sigma Olomouc II53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria OtrokoviceExpected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

2.00

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.34

Sigma Olomouc II

2.00

Sigma Olomouc II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

1.62

creates per match

2.22

1.77

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.62

Sigma Olomouc II

2.22

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.77

Sigma Olomouc II

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Sigma Olomouc II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw

47%

Viktoria Otrokovice or Sigma Olomouc II

78%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc II

74%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

11%

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

74%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

39%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

15%

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals

86%

Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals

59%

Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

33%

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Sigma Olomouc II away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sigma Olomouc II attack 2.22 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

26%

level

22%

Sigma Olomouc II scores more

53%

Sigma Olomouc II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff