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Sigma Olomouc II vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
FT
4 – 0
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
8/15/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 3Andrúv stadion hřiště č. 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sigma Olomouc II59%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Otrokovice21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc II
2.08
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.15

Sigma Olomouc II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc II
2.17
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc II
0.93
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc II ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc II or draw
79%
Sigma Olomouc II or Viktoria Otrokovice
79%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
41%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
36%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
87%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
61%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
34%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
68%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
32%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
74%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc II at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc II attack 2.17 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.08

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sigma Olomouc II scores more
59%
level
21%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
21%

Sigma Olomouc II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc II vs Viktoria Otrokovice

Sigma Olomouc II beat Viktoria Otrokovice 4-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Andrúv stadion hřiště č. 2 in Olomouc.