Viktoria Otrokovice 1–3 Hranice: Result & Stats

Viktoria Otrokovice

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hranice

O. Pernatskyi 72' (pen)

J. Rolinc 75', 68' (pen), 32'

6/13/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 33Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice50%

×Draw22%

Hranice28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria OtrokoviceExpected goals in this matchHranice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.41

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.93

Hranice

1.41

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 51 away

1.64

creates per match

1.06

1.75

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.64

Hranice

1.06

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.75

Hranice

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Hranice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Hranice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw

72%

Viktoria Otrokovice or Hranice

78%

Draw or Hranice

50%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

28%

Hranice wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

85%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

57%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

30%

Hranice 1+ goals

76%

Hranice 2+ goals

41%

Hranice 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

64%

Hranice (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.75 · 64 matches

Hranice away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.64 + Hranice defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hranice attack 1.06 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

50%

level

22%

Hranice scores more

28%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

J. Rolinc

57'

R. Stryk← R. Stryk

60'

P. Chovan← A. Buchta

67'

R. Russmann

68'

J. RolincPenalty

71'

R. Stryk

72'

O. PernatskyiPenalty

75'

J. Rolinc

79'

P. Jakubowicz← P. Jakubowicz

79'

P. Vavrik← P. Vavrik

79'

R. Smekal← R. Smekal

80'

P. Nemec← P. Nemec

86'

J. Marek

87'

J. Cagas← J. Cagas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff