Hranice 0–1 Viktoria Otrokovice: Result & Stats

Hranice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Viktoria Otrokovice

J. Kiska 18'

9/1/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 5Stadion SK Hranice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hranice42%

×Draw23%

Viktoria Otrokovice35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HraniceExpected goals in this matchViktoria Otrokovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.51

Hranice

1.68

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.51

Hranice creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

1.37

creates per match

1.39

1.63

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Hranice

1.37

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.39

allows per match

Hranice

1.63

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hranice+0.00on par

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hranice ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hranice or draw

65%

Hranice or Viktoria Otrokovice

77%

Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice

58%

Winning margin

Hranice wins by 2+

22%

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hranice 1+ goals

81%

Hranice 2+ goals

50%

Hranice 3+ goals

24%

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

78%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

44%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hranice (draw refunded)

55%

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hranice at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.99 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hranice attack 1.37 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.68

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.39 + Hranice defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hranice scores more

42%

level

23%

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

35%

Hranice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hranice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

J. Kiska

25'

M. Kuchar

36'

I. Ilic

46'

V. Rozek← V. Rozek

46'

P. Cervenka← P. Cervenka

53'

L. Hapal← J. Cagas

53'

M. Vymetalik← M. Vymetalik

53'

D. Grygar← D. Grygar

72'

P. Nemec← P. Nemec

72'

M. Vintr← M. Vintr

82'

V. Cverna← V. Cverna

89'

A. Kostic← A. Kostic

90+2'

M. Kalina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff