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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Frýdek-Místek — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Frýdek-Místek
Frýdek-Místek
8/31/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 17Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice38%
×Draw23%
Frýdek-Místek39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.60
Frýdek-Místek
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 81 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.62
Frýdek-Místek
1.48

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.77
Frýdek-Místek
1.58

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Frýdek-Místek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
61%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Frýdek-Místek
77%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek
62%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
19%
Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
80%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
47%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
22%
Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals
80%
Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals
48%
Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
49%
Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Frýdek-Místek away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.48 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
38%
level
23%
Frýdek-Místek scores more
39%

Frýdek-Místek at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Otrokovice vs Frýdek-Místek

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Frýdek-Místek 2-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice in Otrokovice.