Frýdek-Místek 6–1 Viktoria Otrokovice

Frýdek-Místek

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Viktoria Otrokovice

5/23/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 34Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Frýdek-Místek51%

×Draw23%

Viktoria Otrokovice26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Frýdek-MístekExpected goals in this matchViktoria Otrokovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.25

Frýdek-Místek

1.84

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.25

Frýdek-Místek creates 47% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 68 away

1.69

creates per match

1.37

1.12

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek

1.69

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.37

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek

1.12

Viktoria Otrokovice

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frýdek-Místek+0.00on par

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek or draw

74%

Frýdek-Místek or Viktoria Otrokovice

77%

Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice

49%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek wins by 2+

29%

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek 1+ goals

84%

Frýdek-Místek 2+ goals

55%

Frýdek-Místek 3+ goals

28%

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

71%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

36%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek (draw refunded)

66%

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek attack 1.69 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.84

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Frýdek-Místek defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frýdek-Místek scores more

51%

level

23%

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

26%

Frýdek-Místek at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff