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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Blansko — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Blansko
Blansko
4/19/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 24Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice45%
×Draw23%
Blansko32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.79
Blansko
1.47

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 77 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.62
Blansko
1.17

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.77
Blansko
1.97

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Blansko+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Blansko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
68%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Blansko
77%
Draw or Blansko
55%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
24%
Blansko wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
83%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
53%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
26%
Blansko 1+ goals
77%
Blansko 2+ goals
43%
Blansko 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
59%
Blansko (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Blansko away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.97 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Blansko defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.79

Blansko attack 1.17 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
45%
level
23%
Blansko scores more
32%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Otrokovice vs Blansko

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Blansko 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice in Otrokovice.