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Blansko vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Blansko
Blansko
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
8/20/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 3Stadion na Údolní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Blansko48%
×Draw22%
Viktoria Otrokovice30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blansko
1.95
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.52

Blansko creates 28% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 68 away

creates per match

Blansko
1.91
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Blansko
1.67
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Blansko+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blansko ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Blansko or draw
70%
Blansko or Viktoria Otrokovice
78%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
52%

Winning margin

Blansko wins by 2+
27%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Blansko 1+ goals
86%
Blansko 2+ goals
58%
Blansko 3+ goals
31%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
78%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
45%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Blansko (draw refunded)
61%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blansko at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blansko attack 1.91 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.95

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Blansko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blansko scores more
48%
level
22%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
30%

Blansko at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Blansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Blansko 2–2 Viktoria Otrokovice

Blansko and Viktoria Otrokovice drew 2-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion na Údolní in Blansko.