Viktoria Köln U19 3–1 Saarbrücken U19

Viktoria Köln U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Saarbrücken U19

P. Köhl 70'

N. Ringbeck 60'

B. Avzii 27'

L. Althaus 66'

5/3/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 12Großsportanlage Bocklemünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Viktoria Köln U1962%

×Draw19%

Saarbrücken U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Köln U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.32

Viktoria Köln U19

2.45

Saarbrücken U19

1.32

Viktoria Köln U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 37 away

1.92

creates per match

1.19

1.45

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Viktoria Köln U19

1.92

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Viktoria Köln U19

1.45

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Köln U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Viktoria Köln U19 or draw

80%

Viktoria Köln U19 or Saarbrücken U19

81%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

38%

Winning margin

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

40%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

91%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

70%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

44%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

73%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

38%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Köln U19 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.92 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.45

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

62%

level

19%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

20%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

B. Avzii

60'

N. Ringbeck

62'

M. Seitzer← K. Riffel

66'

L. Althaus

67'

G. Amisso← Enrique Pato Rivas

67'

I. Masongele← S. Çetin

70'

P. Köhl

76'

A. Senft← E. Aydin

76'

F. Fricke← F. Albers

78'

A. Dos Santos Reis← B. Erdogan

85'

A. M'Boyo← N. Ringbeck

85'

J. Gumilar← B. Avzii

Viktoria

Saarbrücken

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ringbeck

Soldanski

Schmitt

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: P. Schiavo

67'▲G. Amisso←▼Enrique Pato Rivas

67'▲I. Masongele←▼S. Çetin

76'▲A. Senft←▼E. Aydin

76'▲F. Fricke←▼F. Albers

85'▲A. M'Boyo←▼N. Ringbeck

85'▲J. Gumilar←▼B. Avzii

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

AmissoMasongeleSenftFrickeM'BoyoGumilarWyciok

Manager: S. D`Andrea

62'▲M. Seitzer←▼K. Riffel

78'▲A. Dos Santos Reis←▼B. Erdogan

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

SeitzerReisMees