Saarbrücken U19 3–4 Viktoria Köln U19

Saarbrücken U19

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Viktoria Köln U19

F. Rupp 90', 16'

N. Grucza 47'

G. Amisso 90+3', 62'

D. Plöger 89', 19'

3/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 5FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1932%

×Draw22%

Viktoria Köln U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saarbrücken U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.96

Saarbrücken U19

1.59

Viktoria Köln U19

1.96

Viktoria Köln U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 66 away

1.21

creates per match

1.47

2.45

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19

1.21

Viktoria Köln U19

1.47

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19

2.45

Viktoria Köln U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw

54%

Saarbrücken U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

78%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

68%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

15%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

80%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

47%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

21%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

86%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

58%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.97 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.59

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.47 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

32%

level

22%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

46%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

F. Rupp

19'

D. Plöger

46'

A. Dos Santos Reis← D. Güzelcan

46'

N. Grucza← B. Erdogan

46'

G. Amisso← B. Schmitt

47'

N. Grucza

62'

Enrique Pato Rivas← E. Aydin

62'

T. Abessouguie← B. Avzii

62'

G. Amisso

78'

A. M'Boyo← P. Köhl

78'

S. Çetin← F. Fricke

83'

K. Riffel← E. Erdogan

83'

I. Masongele← F. Albers

89'

D. Plöger

90+3'

J. Seidel← L. Strewenski

90'

F. Rupp

90+3'

G. Amisso

Saarbrücken

Viktoria

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: S. D`Andrea

46'▲A. Dos Santos Reis←▼D. Güzelcan

46'▲N. Grucza←▼B. Erdogan

83'▲K. Riffel←▼E. Erdogan

90+3'▲J. Seidel←▼L. Strewenski

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

ReisGruczaRiffelSeidelChanotFerringTeadel

Manager: P. Schiavo

46'▲G. Amisso←▼B. Schmitt

62'▲Enrique Pato Rivas←▼E. Aydin

62'▲T. Abessouguie←▼B. Avzii

78'▲A. M'Boyo←▼P. Köhl

78'▲S. Çetin←▼F. Fricke

83'▲I. Masongele←▼F. Albers

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

AmissoRivasAbessouguieM'BoyoÇetinMasongeleMozghovyi