Viktoria Köln U19 2–2 RW Oberhausen U19

Viktoria Köln U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

RW Oberhausen U19

O. Mhamdi 60'

I. Altuntas 7' (pen)

D. Kubatta 56' (OG)

A. Özgen 10' (pen)

9/19/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 2Aggerstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Viktoria Köln U1954%

×Draw22%

RW Oberhausen U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Köln U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.31

Viktoria Köln U19

2.02

RW Oberhausen U19

1.31

Viktoria Köln U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 49 away

1.95

creates per match

1.20

1.42

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Viktoria Köln U19

1.95

RW Oberhausen U19

1.20

allows per match

Viktoria Köln U19

1.42

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Köln U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Viktoria Köln U19 or draw

75%

Viktoria Köln U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

78%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

46%

Winning margin

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

31%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

87%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

60%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

33%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

73%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

38%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

68%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Köln U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.42 · 66 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.95 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.02

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.20 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

54%

level

22%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

25%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

I. AltuntasPenalty

10'

A. ÖzgenPenalty

46'

J. Cartus← B. Bartu

56'

D. KubattaOwn goal

60'

O. Mhamdi

61'

S. Giambra← L. de Meester de Tilbourg

61'

T. Schirmer← D. Kubatta

67'

M. Durczok← B. Hompesch

67'

Y. Kazantzidis← J. Klöckner

79'

K. Assadollahi← M. Durczok

79'

I. Karakilic← A. Özgen

Viktoria

RW

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Özgen

Brambach

⚽

Mhamdi

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Wilhelm

61'▲S. Giambra←▼L. de Meester de Tilbourg

61'▲T. Schirmer←▼D. Kubatta

67'▲M. Durczok←▼B. Hompesch

79'▲K. Assadollahi←▼M. Durczok

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

GiambraSchirmerDurczokAssadollahiAlbertMbayabuRudnick

Manager: M. Kaya

46'▲J. Cartus←▼B. Bartu

67'▲Y. Kazantzidis←▼J. Klöckner

79'▲I. Karakilic←▼A. Özgen

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

CartusKazantzidisKarakilicGiourouckWaschkauKlingerIzuwa

U19 Bundesliga: Viktoria Köln U19 2–2 RW Oberhausen U19

Viktoria Köln U19 and RW Oberhausen U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 19, 2021.

Goals: I. Altuntas (7' pen), A. Özgen (10' pen), D. Kubatta (56' o.g.), O. Mhamdi (60').

The match was played at Aggerstadion in Troisdorf.

Viktoria Köln U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Viktoria Köln U19 2–2 RW Oberhausen U19