RW Oberhausen U19 1–2 Viktoria Köln U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Viktoria Köln U19

M. Matthes 67'

K. Assadollahi 61'

R. Aigbekaen 49'

8/21/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 2Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1944%

×Draw23%

Viktoria Köln U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.53

RW Oberhausen U19

1.79

Viktoria Köln U19

1.53

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 67 away

1.58

creates per match

1.46

1.60

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.58

Viktoria Köln U19

1.46

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

Viktoria Köln U19

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

67%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

77%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

56%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

23%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

83%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

53%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

26%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

78%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

45%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.99 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.79

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.46 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

44%

level

23%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

33%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Mulamba← F. Geißler

49'

54'

54'

61'

63'

D. Burghard← W. Izuwa

64'

J. Udelhoven← K. Örgün

64'

K. Taskale← E. Işık

67'

M. Matthes

77'

A. Sancarbarlaz← Y. Magrouda

80'

E. Lang← R. Aigbekaen

80'

E. Preljević← L. de Meester

85'

F. Fili← K. Taskale

RW

Viktoria

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Kaya

46'▲J. Mulamba←▼F. Geißler

54'▲T. Böhm←▼A. Terzi

54'▲T. Simakis←▼E. Özat

63'▲D. Burghard←▼W. Izuwa

77'▲A. Sancarbarlaz←▼Y. Magrouda

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

MulambaBöhmSimakisBurghardSancarbarlazHadzibajramovicPlath

Manager: M. Wilhelm

64'▲J. Udelhoven←▼K. Örgün

64'▲K. Taskale←▼E. Işık

80'▲E. Lang←▼R. Aigbekaen

80'▲E. Preljević←▼L. de Meester

85'▲F. Fili←▼K. Taskale

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

UdelhovenTaskaleLangPreljevićFiliDennerleinAjdari