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Viktoria Herxheim vs TuS RW Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
TuS RW Koblenz
TuS RW Koblenz
10/12/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12Herxheim Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Viktoria Herxheim33%
×Draw22%
TuS RW Koblenz45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Herxheim
1.58
TuS RW Koblenz
1.89

TuS RW Koblenz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Viktoria Herxheim
1.53
TuS RW Koblenz
1.53

allows per match

Viktoria Herxheim
2.24
TuS RW Koblenz
1.64

finishing

Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par
TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Herxheim ↓

TuS RW Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Viktoria Herxheim or draw
55%
Viktoria Herxheim or TuS RW Koblenz
78%
Draw or TuS RW Koblenz
67%

Winning margin

Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
16%
TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
79%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
47%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
21%
TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals
85%
TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals
56%
TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
42%
TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Herxheim at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

TuS RW Koblenz away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.53 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

TuS RW Koblenz attack 1.53 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viktoria Herxheim scores more
33%
level
22%
TuS RW Koblenz scores more
45%

TuS RW Koblenz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TuS RW Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Viktoria Herxheim 0–3 TuS RW Koblenz

TuS RW Koblenz beat Viktoria Herxheim 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Herxheim Kunstrasenplatz in Herxheim.