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TuS RW Koblenz vs Viktoria Herxheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS RW Koblenz
TuS RW Koblenz
FT
4 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
4/26/2025Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 29Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TuS RW Koblenz63%
×Draw18%
Viktoria Herxheim19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS RW Koblenz
2.58
Viktoria Herxheim
1.35

TuS RW Koblenz creates 91% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

TuS RW Koblenz
2.17
Viktoria Herxheim
1.12

allows per match

TuS RW Koblenz
1.57
Viktoria Herxheim
3.00

finishing

TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par
Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS RW Koblenz ↓

Viktoria Herxheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

TuS RW Koblenz or draw
81%
TuS RW Koblenz or Viktoria Herxheim
82%
Draw or Viktoria Herxheim
37%

Winning margin

TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+
42%
Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals
92%
TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals
72%
TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals
47%
Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
74%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
39%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)
77%
Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS RW Koblenz at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Viktoria Herxheim away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS RW Koblenz attack 2.17 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.58

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.12 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

TuS RW Koblenz scores more
63%
level
18%
Viktoria Herxheim scores more
19%

TuS RW Koblenz at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "TuS RW Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: TuS RW Koblenz 4–5 Viktoria Herxheim

Viktoria Herxheim beat TuS RW Koblenz 5-4 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.